Sunday, July 8, 2012

And Now There Are Four - Dallas in Playoffs

Saturday the Dallas Diamonds defeated the Kansas City Tribe 55-35 in their quarter-final contest.  They are now one victory away from the WFA (Women's Football Alliance) championship game. 

They just have to defeat San Diego Surge next Saturday in San Diego.

The winner of that game will play in the WFA championship game in Pittsburgh August 4 at Heinz Field, home of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  The game will be televised on ESPN 3. It will be the first time a women's professional football game has been played in an NFL stadium.

In a previous post (July 6) I gave you some background on the playoffs and why I'm pulling for the Dallas Diamonds.  They're a classy team with a lot of talent.  What are their chances of defeating San Diego?  Pretty good. 

Dallas offense ended the season number one in the WFA in points scored, 74.1 per game, while their defense allowed only 4.2 points per game.  San Diego's offense scored an average of 55.8 points while their defense gave up only 1.5.  I read that as a slight edge to Dallas.  I subtracted points allowed from points scored and that gave Dallas a net of 69.9 and San Diego a net of 54.2.

Quarterback Brittany Bushman with the ball.  Looks
like a pass play.  She's good at those.
The Dallas Quarterback, Brittany Bushman, led the league in passing yardage with 2061 yards on the season.  She completed 58% of her passes, 118 of 201 attempts, and gained an average of 17.5 yards per completion.  Her quarterback ranking was 128.7.

The San Diego Quarterback, Melissa Gallegos, ranked number 8 in passing yardage completing 58.7% of her passes, 81 of 137 attempts and 13.4 yards per completion average.  Her quarterback ranking was102.2.  So again, slight edge to Dallas.

Tiffany Hill, #21, Fourth ranked ball carrier in the league.

Dallas had two running back ranked in the league top twenty.  Tiffany Hill ranked #4 with 958 yards, averaging 12 yards per carry and scoring 18 touchdowns.

Brittany Satterwhite ranked #19 with 637 yards and an average of 15.2 yards per carry and scoring 9 touchdowns.

Brittany Satterwhite - sorry I don't have
a better photo.  She was a league top
twenty runner and receiver.
San Diego had two runners in the top twenty, Monique Zaky, ranked #14 and Cassey Brick ranked #20.  Zaky averaged 10 yards per carry and scored 9 TDs.  Brick 9.8 yards per carry and a dozen TDs. 

Not too shabby.  But again a slight edge to Dallas. 

In pass receptions, Dallas had three players in the league top twenty, Brittany Satterwhite ranked #1 in receiving yardage and #2 in receptions. Umeki Webb ranked #15 in yardage and #9 in number of receptions.  And Alberta Brydson ranked #9 in yardage and #16 receptions. 

San Diego had just one receiver in the top twenty, Holly Peterson who ranked #12 in yardage and #15 in number of  receptions. Advantage Dallas.

#81 Umeki Webb jumping to catch a pass.

#24 Alberta Brydson settling in under a pass.  She makes the catch.

Tired of numbers?  So am I.  You can visit the Women's Football Alliance website and study a lot of numbers, enough to make a CPA happy.

Predicting outcomes in interdivisional games is difficult because divisions have wide variations in talent and competition.   The numbers were posted against different opponents so shouldn't be relied upon as absolute. 

Another consideration - in the quarter-final round of playoffs, the home teams won every game.  Two reasons - one is the team with the best record for the season gets home field advantage so theoretically the home team is the better team.  Two, supportive crowds in the stands energize players on the field.  Is isn't automatic that home field wins but there is a home field advantage.  Advantage San Diego.

So, in my little analysis above Dallas has an advantage.  But San Diego has home field meaning someone smarter than I has compared the records and seeded them the better team. 

Other factors - Dallas has won championships in 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008 - so they do know how to win.  And they are from Texas - we all know Texas is better than California. 

Support the Diamonds
This post is getting long.   Let's close with a suggestion that fans of the Outlaws, fans of women's professional football, donate a little money to the Diamonds.  Travel to San Diego and then Pittsburgh is expensive.  Here's a link to the Diamonds Facebook page.

And if you'd like an excuse to take a little vacation trip to California, maybe head to San Diego next weekend and cheer on our divisional champ.


Cookie said...

Monique Zaky aka Wheels is 1 of the best running backs in womens football.

Anonymous said...

Apperently numbers don't always tell the truth but your expert analysis is awesome. Surge won - slight edge